Auctions: Six Observations From Sotheby’s September 18 Hong Kong Sale

Ready or not, auction season is back. I don’t know about you, but I wasn’t expecting it so soon. While the auction cycle is generally synced up for Geneva and New York sales a bit later in the fall, Sotheby’s is doing the earliest big sale of the fall with “Important Watches” in Hong Kong on September 18. 

Personally, I’m still working through the best way to handle auction coverage, as the number of watches is often daunting. That challenge gets worse with Hong Kong sales, which we’ve generally struggled to stay on top of for a number of reasons. One of which, and this is a complaint for all auction houses, is that there are too many lots in Hong Kong sales. This is driven by both the market location (many of these watches were sourced locally—something I know because I know a decent number of these watches) and the forces behind the auction house and its metrics. Sometimes you have to make sellers happy and take what they want to get at other things (like taking random Hermès bags in a watch sale, as we see this time).

It can be overwhelming for a buyer, and for you and me as readers. I want to find the interesting, great deals in the mid- and low-range and share them with you, but I also can’t ignore the impressive pieces that might shape the broader market. One important note: for Hong Kong sales, I never get to see the watches in person. It’s a lot easier for me to stand in front of a case of watches and pick things up by feel, closely evaluate condition and originality, and the like. So I am genuinely curious how you, as buyers and browsers, would like to see auction lot coverage in the future. So, for now, let’s try a new format and look at three top lots and three other observations from Sotheby’s Hong Kong.

Top Lots

Can F.P. Journe Keep Rolling?

The hottest name in watches right now is F.P. Journe. So hot, in fact, that it seems even the brand would like things to cool off. I’ve heard from multiple sources that new clients face a year or more of a wait, not for a watch but to even get an appointment. I don’t think that’s good for anyone. But that’s what happens when every auction seems to bring new records; the brand’s general visibility has skyrocketed. So it’s no surprise that the two top lots in the auction are from the brand.

Those two watches are limited editions of the Tourbillon Souverain, one in pink gold with a black mother-of-pearl dial, the other in platinum with a more traditional blue mother-of-pearl dial. Both were made for Sincere Fine Watches (in 2005 and 2006), with the former in five pieces and the latter listed as fifteen pieces. Both are estimated at approximately $1.9 million to $3.8 million. For context, a Resonance with a black mother-of-pearl dial sold last fall at Phillips for an unexpected $3.7 million, which now looks like a bargain compared to other prices. Beyond that, a brass-movement Octa Chronographe carries a $1.5 to $2.5 million estimate.

Surprisingly, there are only sixteen F.P. Journe lots in the auction. That’s a relatively low percentage for recent times, but there are still more fall auctions to be had. Unsurprisingly (if a bit eye-roll-inducing), two of the first three lots are F.P. Journe accessories: a set of pens and a clock. People are paying silly money for such accessories lately. If you want a $5,000 pen set, buy something else. Please. François-Paul should be celebrated for his watchmaking, not his accessories, and people competing to show off obscure accessories are missing the point.

But the biggest question is whether the auction prices achieved are sustainable. Many of the original F.P. Journe collectors have sold their rarest pieces—the ones that are easy to call significant in the brand’s history—but there are still a ton of limited-edition or unique watches made over the years that could fetch strong results. I have a bit of a doubt we’ll see sustained record after record, especially since F.P. Journe has tried to temper superlatives or “firsts” claimed recently.

The White Gold Cartier Cheich Returns, Plus Other Shapes

The Cartier Cheich is probably the most surprising watch Cartier has ever made. We covered it here on Hodinkee a few years ago, and it’s certainly hard to forget. The name, Cheich, translates to “desert scarf,” and it’s shaped as the name suggests; the watch drew inspiration from the blue headscarves of the Tuareg people in the Sahara, where the Paris-Dakar Rally took place. Starting in 1983, Cartier decided that any winner of two consecutive years would win the Cartier Challenge Trophy, a watch in this shape. Four were made in beautiful three-tone cases; two are with Cartier, one was lost, and one was auctioned off for a large sum a few years ago and is in the collection of a good friend. Then, in 2010, Cartier made a unique white-gold example for famous Cartier collector Giorgio Seragnoli. That’s this watch, with an estimate of $1 million to $5.1 million.

The watch was offered for a while by Italian dealer Alessio Zenga. As for the estimate, Cartier has had strong, but not necessarily explosive, growth over the past few years. That said, a new player—Shinsuke Sakimoto, who has bought a lot of luxury goods for record prices lately—has been buying watches and could be the kind of person to pay a high price for this, if pushed. If the Cheich is not your thing, then Sotheby’s run of Cartier continues with several gem-set Crash examples, a 1991 Paris Crash, a yellow gold Bamboo Coussin, and more. I’m partial to this 1994 platinum Santos Dumont that looks very much like vintage examples.

An Abundance of Patek Philippe Perpetual Calendars

Despite all the inroads made by F.P. Journe, Patek Philippe remains the backbone of the higher end of the market. This auction is no exception, with several phenomenal watches for sale (including a ref. 5531 world time minute repeater with a cloisonné dial). It’s impossible to ignore the possibly unique ref. 5074R cathedral gong minute repeater perpetual calendar with a beautiful black dial and Breguet numerals, and the $1.275 to $2.55 million estimate causes a pretty big *gulp*. You’ll notice the hands and numerals are white gold, with a pink-gold “1,” and it’s still sealed. More on that later. A more standard, but still gorgeous, ref. 5074P is less than half that, and a ref. 5374 (a bit more modern) is less still, but still quite expensive, obviously.

Really, the fantastic number of Patek perpetual calendars is a star of this auction. You’ve got the sportier ref. 2497 with center seconds (the last one ever produced, in fact), the really beautiful second-series ref. 5016 in pink gold with perpetual calendar, minute repeater, and tourbillon (for a remarkably low start of $450,000), and everything from a modern QP split to a vintage ref. 1526 to make for a very solid selection. I’m a big fan of a ref. 3450 (the successor to the 3448), even though the leap year indicator messes with the symmetry. This example from Gübelin seems interesting, though I can’t quite tell the dial condition from the photos. 

Other Observations

Have You Heard The Good Word About Pocket Watches?

I’d beg you to hear me out, but if you read the words “pocket watches” and ran away, well, it’s your loss. Pocket watches are finally achieving impressive prices again, and this auction has dozens of really strong examples. It starts with an incredibly beautiful, complicated (and unique) ref. 942/2 from Patek. The watch has two going trains for the grande et petite sonnerie, a minute repeater, perpetual calendar, and split-second mechanism. It’s either going to be the feather in the cap and top watch of a collection or belong to someone with a ton of superlatives, but at $445,000 to $890,000, it’s certainly not going to me. Nor is the ref. 961 chronometer, perpetual calendar, minute repeater with its Earnshaw-type spring detent escapement (which is really, really, really cool).

Look, I could go on and on about all the really interesting pocket watches in this auction, but I’ll spare you most of them. I encourage you to spend some time looking through the catalog and the examples, and just enjoy how great watchmakers were in the 1800s and 1900s. These are the watches that titans of industry collected. Literally. There’s a one-minute tourbillon split-second chronograph from Charles Frodsham that J.P. Morgan gifted to Pierpont Morgan Hamilton! The Charles Frodsham two-train grande et petite sonnerie perpetual calendar chronograph with trip (button) repeater is just a work of art and holds its own with anything from Patek or otherwise, and it starts at $150,000 (the price of a cheap Paul Newman, of which there are thousands). There’s even this surprising Patek with a custom dial for H.M. Hutchinson. There’s so much variety in pocket watches (and in this auction alone), so please, stop ignoring me.

Unique Pateks Come In, Unique Pateks Go Out

Patek Philippe watches are delivered from the factory in sealed cardboard boxes, with another sealed plastic sleeve inside. There was a brief but pretty significant demand for what are known as “double-sealed” or “single-sealed” watches, where people paid more to know the watch was unworn. That comes with a few issues. People pressured retailers to sell them sealed so they could flip them for more money. No bueno. The presentation experience also lost some of its magic, and some people were even re-sealing bags. Finally, people who bought sealed watches were afraid to open and wear them. It’s a bummer all around. Luckily, some secondary market dealers started cutting the bags on even valuable items to skip all that nonsense, but they still command a bit of a premium.

What boggles my mind is that this group of four lots, with four unique Patek Philippe Nautilus Chronographs (ref. 5980/1A), is not just double-sealed, but that the kind of client who bought several unique Patek Philippe watches (rumored to have a very personal rationale for this specific customization) decided to sell them. At an estimate of around $300,000 to $600,000, no less. Each watch has a different index highlighted in red, a detail we’ve seen on other watches, like a customized 5004 (a source outside Sotheby’s tells me it was for the same client). Wait, where else is that idea familiar from? Oh, that ref. 5074R above, among other watches. But with how impossible it is to get unique pieces from Patek, especially recently, I’m always surprised to see such personal watches go across the block. I understand the argument that once you own something, you can do what you want with it, but I wouldn’t imagine an owner of a unique Patek needs the money. Maybe they do; maybe they just don’t love watches anymore. Their loss is potentially someone else’s gain.

Are Bubblebacks Back?

As mentioned when I recently covered a book on the subject, the Rolex Bubbleback was the original Rolex collectors’ watch. Will these watches ever return to a place outpacing Paul Newman Daytonas? Not likely. They’re just too small for most people. But boy, are they still kind of captivating. Starting at lot 2339, a collector is selling ten bubbleback or similar-style Rolexes that are really attractive if you can get past the smaller size.

As with anything (but especially here, where I am the furthest from a Bubbleback expert), caveat emptor when buying at auctions. Always do your own research. You wouldn’t believe how many inquiries people send me about obscure watches that are totally fine, but they don’t know enough about what they want to buy to trust even my advice—and they asked me for it in the first place! Bubblebacks are some of the most messed-with watches, because it was easy to swap things around and no one cared back then. In the old days, dials were often redone, and no one really cared either. But I really love the bolder shape in a precious metal case, like this ref. 3131 from 1930 with a black 24-hour dial and yellow gold case and bracelet (estimated at around $15,000 to $40,000). Similarly, the pink gold ref. 3130 and pink gold 3131 with tone-on-tone dials are beautiful, but I’d recommend studying pictures of other dials and deciding your tolerance for the unknown.

These are the kind of watches that could get lost in a big auction like we have here. There are plenty of other interesting and more affordable things (like this Patek ref. 3718A for the Japanese market, a Cartier/James Schulz lapel clip watch from 1945, a crazy Omega De Ville Jeux d’Argent cuff watch that’s gotta go to the Italian market, and plenty of others) and even some wild Patek enamel watches that we didn’t touch on, so it’s best to explore for yourself.